China and Russia have a long history that alternates between confrontation and cooperation. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the pendulum swung to the cooperation side. The bilateral trade soared to historically high level, as China became the major supplier of Russian necessities and the major buyer of Russian oil and natural gas. There is no exaggeration to say that China largely financed Russia’s war on Ukraine. However, their cooperation goes beyond finance and economy, and reaches into strategic areas such as joint military exercises and diplomatic maneuvers. In September 2024, Center for a New American Security (CNAS) published a report that analyzes how this brand new entente between China and Russia has deeply transformed geopolitics in East Asia.
The war in Ukraine marks the turning point for the two authoritarian powers to forge a new kind of relationship, which begins with the rapport between two powerful leaders. Putin and Xi met just three weeks before the Ukraine war broke out, and issued a joint statement that claimed a new relationship with “no limits”. In returning for Xi’s visit to Moscow in March 2023, Putin visited Beijing in May 2024, shortly after his landslide victory in the presidential election. With regard to the Ukraine war, China served as Russia’s biggest supplier of machine tools and military electronic products. China also served as the biggest buyer of Russia’s oil (107 million tons of crude oil in 2023) and gas, thus literally bailing Russia out of Western sanctions.
The Sino-Russo entente occurs on various fronts outside the Ukraine war. Militarily, Russia supplied roughly 77% of China’s imported weapons during 2019-2023. Since the Ukraine war, Russia and China have jointly held four aerial patrols, six naval exercises, and four navel patrols. Economically, the bilateral trade reached an astonishing volume of $240 billion in 2023. Technologically, the two powers have actively sought cooperation in satellite navigation systems, joint construction of a moon base, and information operations that capitalize on societal divisions in Western democracies.
How are China and Russia aligning their strategic goals and coordinating their tactical actions in East Asia? The report identifies four key hot spots: Taiwan, Japan & its surrounding areas, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea. It is noticeable that although the two great powers don’t fully agree with each other’s ambitions and claims, they have managed to stand behind each other’s “core interests and major concerns.” With regard to the Taiwan issue, China’s top strategic priority, Russia has stated unequivocally that it is fully behind China’s “one-China principle” and is vehemently against Taiwan independence. In December 2022, Russia actively collaborated with China in holding a joint military exercise in the East China Sea, demonstrating mutual solidarity in protesting against U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. The military exercise was aimed to strengthen the two great powers’ capabilities in joint blockade, search & seizure, antisubmarine, as well as air defense. What constitutes the core piece for the Sino-Russo strategic partnership is Russia’s military commitment in a possible cross-strait conflict. Russia’s array of options ranges from logistic support in crude oil supplies, to military provocations targeting Korea and Japan
In the areas around Japan, China and Russia have taken on joint operations in various forms of air & naval patrols, military exercises, and intelligence gathering. From April 2023 to May 2024, China and Russia made respectively 479 and 174 incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), along with 133 naval operations that aroused interception efforts from Japan’s SDF. China and Russia’s naval ships ran navigation across Japan’s northern and southwestern sea areas, like the Miyako Strait, which is approximately 100 km from Taiwan. All these provocative maneuvers have converged to exert tremendous pressure on Japan’s SDF to react and respond.
Regarding the Korean Peninsula, in March 2024 Russia vetoed, with China acting as a collaborative abstainer, the U.N.’s continuous monitoring of sanctions on North Korea. The newly-formed Russia-North Korea brotherhood also serves China’s national interests by boosting Russia’s war efforts and stabilizing the Kim regime. In the South China Sea, Moscow voiced support for China’s territorial claims, while Russia’s Pacific Fleet did antisubmarine exercises in January 2024 as a sign of power projection.
To counter the Sino-Russo entente, the authors offer several concrete policy suggestions. First and foremost, American policymakers must recognize that Russia is no longer a strategic balancer, no matter in willingness or in capabilities, against China in East Asia,. Washington should establish specific metrics to keep track of the latest development and the inherent limits of the bilateral entente. This would help American policymakers to identify potential sources of bilateral tension and disagreement. With these sources in mind, Washington should seek to coordinate and strengthen U.S.-led alliances and partnerships, such as Quad, AUKUS, U.S.-Japan-Korea, and even NATO. Washington should also deepen ties and forge strategic partnerships with non-allies in East Asia through trade, finance, energy, and technological cooperation. At the same time, the U.S. should conduct value-based “principled diplomacy” with China, while maintain proper communication lines with Russia in order to strike a balance between deterrence and risk control.
The report concludes with an assessment that Russia will defer more to China’s demands and wishes as the Ukraine war keeps dragging on. Albeit out of convenience, this renewed strategic partnership surely will have far-reaching implications for East Asian state stakeholders, particularly Taiwan. It’s imperative for American policymakers to look deeply into the nature of the Sino-Russo entente, unite allies and partners, and mobilize concerted efforts to keep this dragon-bear-tango in check and under control.
The article is based on the report “The China-Russia Entente in East Asia: Contending with Authoritarian Partnership in a Critical Region”, authored by Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet of the Center for a New American Security. Read the full report