How to effectively respond to China’s gray zone tactics is a timely and important topic hotly debated by the strategic communities today. In a report recently published by the RAND Corporation, it points out that China views these tactics as a legal and creative way of exercising its sharp power, and uses them against neighboring countries including Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, India, and Vietnam. The report proposes relevant indicators to further evaluate the threat these tactics may pose, while offering concrete suggestions for the U.S. government to brave these grave challenges.
The report addresses 4 key questions. The first question relates to China’s definition and perception on gray zone tactics. The report defines China’s gray zone tactics as “coercive Chinese government geopolitical, economic, military, and cyber and information operations (cyber/IO) beyond regular diplomatic and economic activities and below the use of kinetic military force.” These tactics are also embodied in the application of “military operations other than war” (MOOTW) to mobilize nonmilitary actors and means.
The second question concerns the motivations behind China’s gray zone tactics. Eyeing the Indo-Pacific as the most critical region, China’s primary intention is to create a more manipulative environment by changing the status quo across geopolitical, economic, military, and cyber/IO domains, while at the same time cautiously operating below the military threshold.
The third question looks into the ways China practices gray zone tactics. China alternates between military and non-military actions to maximize applied pressure. China also alternates between high-profile and low-profile gray zone tactics, and use these tactics selectively on targeted countries. China seems to exert more caution in applying more various tactics against larger countries like Japan and India. Taiwan, the main gray zone target, receives the most varied combination of tactics in military, cyber/IO, economic, and geopolitical dimensions.
The last question concerns how effectively the United States could counter China’s gray zone tactics. To evaluate the severity and seriousness of these threats, the report suggests three indicators that gauge the damage that China’s gray zone tactics might cause, the extent of difficulty to counter them, and the breadth they are used with. Furthermore, the report proposes a weighted approach that takes into account U.S. objectives, U.S. interests, and prevalence of China’s tactics. According to the approach, China’s international geographical and grassroots economic tactics pose the most problematic threat that demands constant U.S. efforts to equip allies and partners with adequate means to oppose China’s maneuvers.
The report concludes with several concrete recommendations for the U.S. government. Effective measures include consulting with key allies, developing criteria to evaluate different gray zone tactics, directly countering China in disputed territories, and focusing on gray zone scenarios that can be more easily escalated. The U.S. military forces should also establish infrastructure of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and cyber-defense to raise domain awareness and to build up comprehensive countervailing capabilities. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s gray zone tactics and its impacts on regional security, and how a prominent think tank observes and interprets China’s real strategic intentions.
The article is based on RAND Corporation’s report “A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China’s Gray Zone Tactics”. Read the full report