The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) published a report titled “U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing” in 2023, authored by Jacob Stokes, Alexander Sullivan, and Noah Greene. This comprehensive analysis delves into the intertwining dynamics of U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry and the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), particularly its military applications.

China views artificial intelligence (AI) as a cornerstone for both economic and military advancement. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Secretary General Xi Jinping aims to integrate AI into the military, a process known as “intelligentization,” to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class force by mid-century. This strategy involves using AI to enhance command and control, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and autonomous systems. While addressing social challenges, AI-driven improvements are expected to boost productivity and innovation in the civilian sector. Militarily, AI will enable the PLA to develop advanced capabilities such as unmanned systems, predictive maintenance, electronic warfare, and automated target recognition. Although China faces technological, resource, and personnel challenges in fully realizing its AI goals, its focus on AI reflects a broader strategy to assert itself as a “science and technology great power,” posing strategic risks for the United States and its allies.

The report identifies five primary pathways through which military AI could increase strategic risks between the U.S. and China: capability enhancements, decision-making and information, autonomous systems, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), and command, control, and communications (C3). Incremental improvements in military AI can cumulatively provide significant advantages, potentially emboldening China to assert itself more aggressively. AI-augmented decision-making could compress decision timelines, introduce erroneous data, and amplify influence operations, leading to miscalculations. The deployment of autonomous drones and other robotic systems could escalate conflicts, whether through deliberate use or accidental engagements. AI-driven ISR capabilities could undermine the survivability of critical assets, prompting preemptive strikes due to perceived vulnerabilities. Lastly, enhancements in C3 systems using AI could destabilize existing balances by improving offensive and defensive capabilities in ways that are difficult to predict and manage.

To manage these risks, the report suggests a multifaceted strategy for the U.S. including technological and capability development, unilateral responsible management, and diplomatic engagements. First, the U.S. should focus on maintaining its technological edge and denying China the tools needed to advance its military AI capabilities through restrictions on exports of critical technologies and investments in domestic AI research. Second, the U.S. must adopt rigorous test, evaluation, verification, and validation (TEVV) processes for military AI systems to ensure safety and reliability, thereby reducing risks of accidental escalations. Third, the U.S. should engage China in bilateral and multilateral discussions to establish norms and agreements around the use of military AI. For instance, Confidence-building measures (CBMs) and crisis communication mechanisms are important to preventing misunderstandings and managing conflicts.

The report concludes with actionable recommendations for U.S. policymakers, which include constraining China’s military AI progress, enhancing U.S. AI capabilities, promoting norms and best practices, and engaging in diplomatic efforts. Implementing targeted actions to limit China’s development of AI for military and repressive purposes is crucial, and investing in advanced AI research and development will further help the U.S. maintain a competitive edge. Equally important is the development and advocacy for international norms on the use of military AI, with a focus on ethical considerations and transparency. Lastly, pursuing diplomatic avenues to mitigate risks, including bilateral talks and multilateral agreements on AI and military applications, will help manage the strategic risks associated with military AI. By taking these actions, the U.S. can better navigate the complex landscape of AI-driven military competition with China.

This article is based on the report “U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing” by the Center for a New American Security. Read the full report.