During the 2024 American presidential election, there had been intense discussions on a possible second Trump administration’s foreign policy. Now that Donald J. Trump has secured his comeback victory on the election night, it’s becoming urgent and imperative to look at the possible directions of his foreign policy. Robert C. O’Brien, the national security adviser during the first Trump administration, wrote an article on Foreign Affairs’ July/August issue. This may give us some hint on the guidelines and roadmaps of the second Trump administration’s foreign policy.

In the beginning, Mr. O’Brien stresses that the second Trump administration would signal “the return of realism with a Jacksonian flavor”. This means President Donald J. Trump would adopt President Andrew Jackson’s foreign policy approach, which features being “focused and forceful” when necessary, while exerting caution in keeping America away from overreaching in global conflicts. This Jacksonian approach would, Mr. O’Brien believes, make Washington’s allies more secure through requirement of self-reliance.

Who are America’s most dangerous enemies? Mr. O’Brien points out the “Beijing-Moscow-Tehran” axis. This axis has become more dangerous as China and Russia are redoubling their efforts in enlarging and modernizing their nuclear arsenals. To counter this grave threat, the U.S. should restart nuclear tests as well as the production of uranium-235 and plutonium-239. The U.S. should also strengthen its conventional arsenals by accelerating the processes of acquisition and development in hypersonic missiles, the F-35 fighters, the KC-46 tanker aircrafts, Zumwalt destroyers, and the Littoral combat ships.

With regard to China, Mr. O’Brien criticizes the Biden administration for having sent mixed messages about Xi Jin-ping’s ambitions and tactics. Unlike the Biden administration, the second Trump administration would actively pursue the decoupling of American economy from China’s by enacting higher tariffs and tighter export controls. The second Trump administration would seek to strengthen ties with Pacific allies-Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and Korea. At the same time, Trump’s second term would renew its first-term commitment in beefing up America’s naval power in conventional battleships, Virgina-class attack submarines, and Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines. Besides, Mr. O’Brien thinks the U.S. should invite Taiwan to participate the annual Rim of the Pacific joint military exercises, while provide military aid to Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

The article concludes with discussions on how would the second Trump administration treat its friends and foes. Instead of repeating the mantra of “the rule-based international order”, the U.S. should seek to improve relations with democratically-elected conservative leaders in Brazil, Hungary, Israel, and Poland. As for dealing with autocratic states, the second Trump administration would pay more attention to dissidents like Jimmy Lai, who bravely stands up against the brutal regime of the Chinese Communist Party. America’s engagement with these dissenters, as history has demonstrated, holds the potential of political transformation. America has long stood as an example to others. However, as the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis grows more repressive and aggressive, America must regain its faith in what it can achieve, and renew its commitment in eradicating global repression, insecurity, and poverty.

The article is based on Robert C. O’Brien’s “The Return of Peace Through Strength: Making the Case for Trump’s Foreign Policy” on the 2024 July/August issue of Foreign Affairs. Read the full article