In the era of geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty that’s never seen since the end of WWII, America is in urgent need of transformative thinking on the next grand strategy. Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) recently published a report that outlines a new framework of America’s grand strategy in the twenty-first century. The report lays out three pillars of America’s grand strategy: consensus built on fundamental values, security alliances based on mutual interests, and constructive participation in international organizations.
In the beginning, the report had a historical review on what drove America policymakers to formulate a grand strategy during 1946-1950. During that period of despair and hope, Europe was severely devastated by two ravaging world wars. The colonial empires that the old European powers had built up collapsed and disintegrated. The Soviet Union had both the intentions and capabilities to launch a large-scale offensive of re-colonization, if not a full invasion. To counter all these grand challenges, American policymakers decided to anchor their policies based on President Roosevelt’s grand design of the Bretton Woods System that mainly featured IMF, World Bank, and GATT (a substitute for International Trade Organization). This well-calculated decision, along with the Marshall Plan, saved Western Europe and the rest of the Free World from economic apocalypse, and laid the foundation for subsequent postwar recoveries.
How is today’s new cold war different from yesterday’s old cold war? The report identified several key differences. Compared to yesterday’s America, today’s America no longer possesses the once-held dominant economic might nor the institutional superiority. What makes matters more complicated is the astonishing rapidity of technology advance that endangers democratic governance, as well as the existential threat posed by pandemics like Covid-19. Moreover, the Global North led by America no longer presents the image of a reliable problem-solver to the Global South in terms of economic and social development. Instead, China’s charm offensive takes charge in the Global South.
According to the report, China has become the largest trade partner for most counties in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Using the annual China-Africa Cooperation Forum as the center stage, Xi Jin-ping has endeared and built personal relationships with numerous African leaders. Apart from trade, debt financing acts as another instrument of influence. China has imposed the Global South a debt of more than one trillion dollars through poorly reviewed infrastructure projects, financed by the Bell and Road Initiative (BRI). These increasingly unsustainable debts pave ways for China’s growing influence in the external and internal affairs of the Global South. African countries’ collective abstention in the UN votes to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine stands out as a typical example of how the Global South has chosen to distance from what they deem as the internal strife in the Global North.
What makes the U.S lose ground to China in winning the hearts and minds of the Global South? The authors point out that America’s current development policies are more grounded in America’s own domestic agendas and wishful thinking, while much less grounded in the Global South’s core interests and urgent concerns. Compared to America’s problem of inconsistency, China has adopted an integrated strategy that moves from traditional areas like aid and projects to new dimensions such as commercial trade and direct investments. As one African leader quipped, China gives money while America gives lectures.
To counter this negative trend, the authors call for resetting the development objectives and agendas implanted with the belief in free markets and competition. That means America needs to reframe its focus to trade liberalization, development financing, and economic growth. America also needs to realign its objectives with the Global South’s, which is to raise the living standards of the common people. Besides, America ought to help the Global South deal with the complex problem arising from rapid population growth, rising demand for energy and water, and the subsequent impact on the global environment.
The report concludes with a vociferous appealing for visionary American leadership that is predicated upon strong military power, solid commitment to private sectors, consistency in trade policies, and unwavering support for the people of the Global South. America’s competition with China is essentially a competition of “alternative philosophies of governance”. Winning this competition demands bold visions, sensible directions, and pragmatic approaches that converge towards a shared future of a renewed American century.
The article is based on CSIS’s “A Strategic Framework for America in the Twenty-First Century”, authored by John J. Hamre, Joyce Bongongo, Kate MacPhail, John Schaus, and Nina Tarr. Read the full report