Center for a New American Security (CNAS) recently published a report authored by Jacob Stokes, senior fellow for the Indo-Pacific Security Program. The report addresses how China applies grey zone military tactics against Taiwan. According to the report, gray zone activities stand between peace and conventional warfare, stay below the threshold of triggering major conflict, and cover a wide array of areas in diplomacy, economics, information, and security. 

According to the report, on the military front China regularly sends crewed air patrols over Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), sometimes over 100 sorties a day. Uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV) are also part of this type of pressure over Taiwan. PLA combat drones, along with surveillance balloons, constantly fly around Taiwan´s ADIZ. On the other hand, the Navy of the PLA (PLAN) exerts pressure on Taiwan with marine survey vessels and hydrographic survey ships operating around the island’s coasts, forcing the rerouting of commercial traffic. Besides, ballistic missiles pose another form of threat to intimidate the Taiwanese. On the non-military front, the common approaches include economic coercion, disinformation, and political interference in national & local elections, aiming to garnering support for China’s stances in Taiwan’s domestic politics. Another form of threat comes from waging cyber-attacks. A study found that as of half of 2023, Taiwan faced 15,000 single attacks every second.

Why is China launching the gray zone tactics over Taiwan? The author argues that the first and foremost reason is to gradually seize complete control over Taiwan in order to pursue Xi Jinping’s ultimate goal of “national rejuvenation”. These tactics also provide opportunities for PLA to sharpen its training and assess how Taiwan responds to China’s provocation and how Taiwan’s “porcupine strategy” works against China’s coercive actions. This kind of tactics also aim to infuse a sense of vulnerability on the Taiwanese, and exert intimidation over Taiwan’s main allies like the United States and Japan. In addition, these tactical operations intentionally capitalize on Taiwan’s military weaknesses, gradually intrude into Taiwan’s sovereignty, and ultimately manage to create the “new normal”, which can be kept persistent or be escalated into more tension and conflict. 

The report offers concrete suggestions for Taiwan to counter China’s gray zone tactics. First, Taiwan should make accurate assessments on the effectiveness of China’s grey zone operations so that counteracting efforts could be targeted towards operations with higher impact. Second, Taiwan should improve the process of information tracking on China’s operations with adequate devices and vehicles like the recently-purchased MQ-9B Sea Guardian UAVs. Third, Taiwan should strengthen its resilience in key fronts through infrastructure investments such as building satellite internet constellation as a substitution for subsea cables. Fourth, Taiwan should largely increase its military commitments and strengthen collaboration with the U.S. in countering China’s grey zone tactics. More important, Taiwan should actively engage in public diplomacy to expose China’s tactics and thus reshape the global narratives regarding China’s intensions and operations against Taiwan. 

In conclusion, the report acknowledges that China’s grey zone operations constitute a kind of cruel reality for Taiwan to face up with. However, the report asserts that this reality is not something impossible to cope with. Instead, it can be properly addressed with adequate preparations and preemptive measures. 
The article is based on the report “Resisting China’s Gray Zone Military Pressure on Taiwan”, authored by Jacob Stokes of the Center for a New American Security. Read the full report